You're playing for top 8 after 15 grueling rounds. Thousands of dollars are on the line. It all comes down to this:

Should you roll?

You math it out. You're trying to think of other lines, but your eyes keep returning to the equipment on your left. Your hand hovers for a moment.

You pick up the die and-

It all goes black…

The Greatest Of All Time

Scabskin Leathers is a mirror that reflects your true self. Within a simple textbox, it achieves a level of depth that no other Flesh and Blood card ever will. It is controversial, beloved, tilting, and it can teach you to play at the highest level. I will use it today as a jumping off point to explore the way I think about Flesh and Blood- covering expected value, win percentage, and variance along the way.

For those of you unfamiliar with the masterpiece that is Scabskin Leathers. Here is a refresher:

It’s an iconic Battleworn 2 leg piece beautifully illustrated by Ksenia Belova, with the following text- “Once per Turn Action: Roll a 6 sided die. Gain action points equal to half the number rolled, rounded down.”

Let's spell out the immediate implications of this ability. Activating Scabs uses your action point for the turn. This means that when you roll a 2 or 3 (gaining 1 action point), it has effectively done nothing. If you roll a 4 or 5 you get 2 action points to work with. Roll a 6- you’ve got 3 AP (often overkill, but oh so satisfying). However, roll a 1 and you cannot take another action this turn. You are forced to pass.

An obvious question arises:

When is it correct to roll?

Scabs Maths

Let’s dive into some of the prevailing philosophies regarding Scabskin Leathers. There are a few schools of thought you can apply to how and when you choose to pick up the die.

Always roll (Gambling addiction)
Never roll (Wants to play chess)
Expected Value (I love maths)

The Gamblers

Let’s start with the gambling addicts. What can we learn from Brute mains that pick up their dice over and over? Well, since the average outcome from a Scabs roll is positive, you will succeed more often than not. Much like a card counter at the blackjack table; they see the odds are in their favour and commit. It doesn't matter if you lose thousands of dollars short term, as long as you keep rolling you’ll come out on top.

The Chess Players

So, if the odds are in their favour, why would someone choose not to roll? Well, action points are not the ultimate goal in Flesh and Blood. Shocking news to Dio players- I know- however, gaining action points only improves your position some of the time. On top of this, you often have agency over whether you even need a spare action point in the first place. You can usually defend with cards you don't have a use for. If you can win the game without needing to roll, why take the risk? The philosophy of these ‘chess players’ is to reduce variance. Instead of rolling, they defend with their cards.

Here Comes Expected Value

Taking wisdom from both the chess players and the gambling addicts, lets try to mathematically measure how useful activating Scabs is. To start, we need to work out what use an action point is. How is gaining an action point (or 3) going to impact a turn? Everyone loves value, so let's use that as our framework. We can compare how much we get to attack/defend for normally, with the average we get to attack/defend for given we roll Scabs. The EV (expected value) calculation for a Scabs roll looks like:

(Just a heads up, this next section is very math heavy, feel free to skip to: ‘Win Percentage- A Philosophy’ if algebra is not your thing)

A(⅓) + B(⅓) +C(⅙) + D(⅙) = Expected Value.

Where A,B,C, and D represent the value of your turn given 1,2,3, and 0 action points respectively. Let’s imagine my opponent passed and I have a full 4 card hand with no blocking choices. Something like this:

To work out the EV of rolling here, start by working out what you can do using 1,2,3 and 0 action points.

A. 1 action point- play Swing Big, arsenal Swing Big. (8 + arsenal = ?).

B. 2 action points- play Swing Big, play Swing Big. (8 + 8 = 16)

C. 3 action points- play Swing Big x2, attack with Romping Club. (8 + 8 + 4 = 20)

D. 0 action points- arsenal Swing Big. (arsenal = ?)

Even a simplified gamestate like this has difficult questions to explore when working out the ‘value’ of something like an arsenal. You have to compare the use of what you're arsenaling with a non-arsenal play. In this case, on any future turn where you could play Swing Big from arsenal you could instead activate your weapon for either 4 or 5 damage. I’ll estimate the Romping Club to swing for 4.2 damage on average. (What would your estimate be?) With this in mind, a Swing Big in arsenal adds approximately 8 - 4.2 = 3.8 value to a future turn cycle. (Given the context of Romping Club.)

A. (8 + 3.8 = 11.8)

B. (8 + 8 = 16)

C. (8 + 8 + 4 = 20)

D . (3.8 = 3.8)

Now that you have worked out the value of your turn for each Scabs roll, you take the EV formula:

A(⅓) + B(⅓) +C(⅙) + D(⅙)

And swap in those values:

11.8/3 + 16/3 + 20/6 + 3.8/6 = 13.2333…

You get an average value of 13.23 from rolling Scabs this turn. When you compare this result against the 11.8 value of not rolling (1 action point), you get a clear answer- It’s higher EV to activate Scabs this turn. Time to pick up the die.

What if instead, you had the opportunity to defend going into the same turn? How would that change it? You would compare the 13.23 expected value of keeping your hand and rolling, with the most efficient line that didn't involve Scabskin Leathers. You could defend for 3 with Wrecker Romp, attack with Swing Big for 8, and arsenal your second Swing Big: Approximately 14.8 Value. Therefore, rolling is bad EV when you have a chance to defend instead. We can use this as a general rule. Don’t hold cards to roll with.

The EV process is very accurate, however, it’s a little unwieldy to whip out every turn of the game, especially when comparing multiple lines. Let's simplify it with a few assumptions. I want a practical rule of thumb we can use in the place of the full EV Calculation.

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +C(⅙) + D(⅙)

This represents all situations where rolling is higher EV. I have made the assumption that your 1 action point line (A) is the same as your non-scabs line (A). Or in other words: that you couldn't- or already have- defended.

Then we assume B (2 ap) is roughly the same as C (3 ap). Most of the time your third action point is redundant and when it isn't, it's worth less than 6 value. Given we are dividing C by 6 this will end up as a 0-1 point fluctuation at the end. Therefore:

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +C(⅙) + D(⅙)

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +B(⅙)+ D(⅙)+(a little)

After rolling a 1 on Scabs your strongest play is to arsenal a card and pass, roughly 3 value. Therefore, D(⅙) is approximately 3/6=0.5 value. This is small enough to combine with the error value, like so:

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +B(⅙)+ D(⅙)+(a little)

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +B(⅙) + (a little more)

Doing some maths:

A<A(⅓) + B(⅓) +B(⅙) + (a little more)

A-A(⅓)<B(⅓) +B(⅙) + (a little more)

A(⅔)< B(½)+ (a little more)

A< B(¾) +(a little more)

Therefore: a positive EV is a 3 to 4 ratio.

This is a lot more applicable to your games. If you get 12 value from 1 AP and 16 value from 2 AP, your roll is slightly positive. (The “+a little more” acts as a tie breaker). You can skip the whole EV formula, just take 25% off of your value with 2 AP, if it's still larger- its a good EV roll. Lets try an example:

After defending, you've got a 7 value turn with 1 ap (attack with Rough Up) or 10 with 2 ap (Can swing Claw as well), is that good EV?

25% off 10 is 7.5 so yes, this looks good.

The power of maths has solved Flesh and Blood once again! When rolling for EV: Don't hold cards to roll, and check with 25%.

What's this? I keep losing???

Win Percentage - A Philosophy

There are plenty of times in a game where EV does not correlate with correct play. The true goal in any competitive game is to maximize your win percentage. It doesn't matter if rolling is higher EV if it makes you more likely to lose. The higher your win percentage in the midst of a match, the less risks you should take. The lower your win percentage, the more risks you should take. This effect has a large impact on when rolling Scabs is a good idea or not. If you are in a winning position, there is no point rolling for a 0.7 EV gain- it just risks giving your opponent a way back into the game.

On the other side of this, negative EV rolls are also correct in many gamestates. Forcing blocks, playing from a losing position, and searching for offensive overlap vs a fatigue deck; there are plenty of reasons to ignore the EV and roll anyway. EV calculations are an approximation for when you lack specific knowledge of the gamestate. Imagine a game of Flesh and Blood as a timeline. Your first play at the left, your last play at the right, with all of the turns in-between laid out in front of you:

Towards the right hand side of the graph we have a strong idea of the true state of the game. I know that If I roll anything other than a 6, I'm dead on the following turn. I have exactly a 16.6% chance to win the game. My ‘knowledge of win percentage’ is high. On the other hand, on turn 0, I think I have a 60% chance to win this matchup. However, we haven't started playing so this is a very rough estimate. I still don't know what kind of list my opponent is on or what macro plan they are using. As time progresses in-game we have more information to accurately read the gamestate and make better estimates of who is ahead and how each of our choices will affect the win percentage. At the start of the game, we rely on EV and general theory to inform our decisions. On the final turn, we are playing towards specific and exact win conditions. Somewhere in the middle we are making a messy transition between the two.

The 25% rule for Scabs rolls is only useful on the left hand side of the graph (or in very EV centric, grindy matchups). In the later half of a game, you should identify who is most advantaged if you take risks and transition towards specific win conditions as soon as possible.

I will reflect on two games I played at Pro Tour Yokohama to help illustrate the point. I brought RKO as my deck of choice to the CC portion.

Round 4 – RKO Vs Pleadies

When RKO fights fatigue decks (like Pleiades), the only win condition is to play counter-fatigue. To beat them at their own game. We started playing and I immediately started rolling, not to generate EV, but to generate deck damage. I need to play out the majority of my threats if I want to last into the second cycle vs a Sledge. I was lucky, and rolled quite well for the first half of the game. My opponent stayed at a high life total with life gain and Clash effects. I was coming out ahead on deck damage as the game progressed, so I re-assessed the gamestate. At the start of the graph, my understanding was that fatigue would be the way I won or lost the game. However, I seemed to be winning on fatigue, and losing on turn to turn value. I started defending more, and focused on efficiency. I didn't need to roll Scabs anymore, I just needed to reach the end game without dying to the value of a 1 card 6 every 3 turns. I played safe the rest of the game and won via deck damage.

Lets put this game into the context of the graph. At the start of the game, I guessed that I was at a low win percent (my opponent would fatigue me if we played a standard game). So, I committed to taking a lot of poor EV rolls. After this was successful, I reached a positive win percentage so I stopped rolling (I was winning on cards in deck, and could fatigue them). Fatigue matchups like this are the perfect example of searching for a win condition and then shaping the risks you take around it.

Round 5 – RKO Vs Ira

This was a very grindy matchup where we traded 2-card hands over and over, slowly chipping each other down. In this context, EV calcs are very useful. I needed to increase my average value per turn in order to win this matchup. I also knew that I was unfavoured, since Kodachis make it hard for me to maintain efficiency. This meant I was comfortable taking risks and was incentivised to make a lot of EV rolls (good EV is still a risk). I rolled a lot, I got lucky again, and I still lost. Here’s the lesson: if I had rolled poorly in this game it wouldn’t have changed the outcome, but I gave myself a shot at winning because I rolled. I think this game was a nice blend of both EV and win percent informing my rolling.

In both of these examples you will notice I was mentally ‘jumping ahead’- trying to predict where the win percentage was going to go, and applying that to my play. This is my preferred approach to Flesh and Blood. I strive to use win percentage as a guide for my decisions. In some matchups you will have a clear idea of the shape, others are a lot messier. Regardless, I recommend pushing yourself to work out where the win percentage is leading.

How to Let Win Percentage Guide You:

Focus on macro plans. Fatiguing someone, playing towards a pitchstack, accelerating the game, all of these are ways to move towards specific win conditions. Have a serious look at where your choices are leading you in-game. Ask yourself whether you or your opponent is gaining an advantage from your current playstyle?

Make estimates. This is great advice I've stolen from Reid Duke. When dealing with unknown info in games, actually make an estimate. I’m talking about specific numerical values. “I think I'm going to win this game 80% of the time”. “I think there's a 40% chance that they draw another piece of arsenal disruption next turn”. This helps turn your instincts into something you can compare to other concrete values in game. It also refines your estimation skills, the more you practice the more you turn vague gut feelings into accurate game info.

Imagine you are a wizard who can see the future. What cards are you drawing next turn? What's in your opponent's hand? How is the game going to play out? Perfect play is something that looks like clairvoyance- the ability to make accurate predictions again and again. The easiest way to practice this is by simply imagining the future gamestate. This context will naturally flow into and inform your choices. When to defend, when to attack, when to play safe and most importantly-

When to roll Scabs.

It all goes black…

When you look down, the die stares back.

A single-eyed glare.

You've rolled a 1.

Variance & Tilt

Love it or hate it, variance is one of the main features in the strategic landscape of Flesh and Blood. It is impossible to master the game without mastering both variance and the way you feel towards it. This is another reason why I love Scabskin Leathers. Think of it like snakes and ladders: a meditative exercise in positive and negative outcomes. You will win games and you will lose games. Scabskin Leathers slaps you in the face with that reality.

The idea of rolling a die is sometimes upsetting in the context of Flesh and Blood. Usually variance in our game comes in the form of a draw sequence or emerging gamestate that you have a direct interface with. Even a super unfavoured matchup is a sign that you have taken the wrong deck to an event (or that someone else has found an angle you haven't). Dice rolls on the other hand can feel fundamentally different to other in-game choices. It feels like rolling is a separate ‘type’ of variance. This is an illusion. Every choice you make is out of your control once you make it- once you ‘throw the dice’. For the majority of the game, our knowledge of gamestate, handstate, and cards in deck is mixed with guesses, estimates and unknowns.

Lets say you decided to hold blocks vs a Fai to not get punished by a Snatch or a Breaking Point. You're aware that they have two Energy Potions in their list, however, it's more likely that they’ve drawn one of the five on-hits left in their deck. You’ve decided to ‘roll’ the dice that is most in your favour. The Fai player ends on an Energy Potion and you are left with a card in hand you can’t use. You've lost value and you're in a worse position despite making the correct play (given your limited info). Every play is like this. Every choice is made based on a scale of possible outcomes. Even deciding not to roll is a gamble. Good play means rolling good dice. Your job as a player is to work out the shapes of the invisible dice in front of you.

Let's return to the Snakes and Ladders example. In a purely meditative version, you have no control over which dice to use. Each turn you pick up the same cube and watch as it determines your path in life. Flesh and Blood is more empowering than that. Each turn you choose a die. You reach out into the darkness, select your weapon of choice, and then…

You Roll.

And you roll again.

I think about my life in a similar way.

Wake up every morning, put on your Scabskins, and make it happen.

Bonus Puzzle

If you would like to practice the concepts I’ve covered in this article, the following puzzle was designed as a companion piece. It explores what I've discussed in a hands-on way.

Cards in the puzzle:

Flail of Agony, Vynnset Iron Maiden, Runechant, Deathly Wail, Scabskin Leathers, Mandible Claw, Rhinar Reckless Rampage, Pulping, Show No Mercy, Assault and Battery, Wild Ride, Sand Sketched Plan, Beast Within, Swing Big.

Solution & Hints Below:

Work out what your goal is first. Are you playing for EV? Can you fatigue them? Is there a way to win this turn?

If you have to rely on a dice roll- which risk is most in your favour?

Perhaps 2 rolls is better than 1?

Solution:

Roll Scabskin Leathers, 50% of the time you win the game from gaining 2 or more action points. (Claw into Show no Mercy).

33% of the time you get to try again, which is better odds than your other options. Then you get to play Sand Sketched Plan and add Swing Big to your hand. This gives you a 50% chance to win again, when discarding Swing Big or Wild Ride. (Intimidate Vynnset, and then attack with Show No Mercy)

In the case that you discard Show No Mercy (25% of the time), you still have a chance. Pitching Assault and Battery to play Pulping here, there’s a 66% chance to win (via Dominate) and a 33% chance Beast Within kills you.

Playing your turn in this order maximizes your odds to win the game.

Thank you for playing and reading this far.

I hope you enjoyed.

Good luck out there!

-Ben

Why Scabs is the G.O.A.T -And When To Roll